Two years ago, Mel Kiper was correct about the Redskins’ eventual first-round draft pick from the moment he released his first official mock draft. On January 22nd, 2009, Kiper predicted that Brian Orakpo of the Texas Longhorns would be Washington’s pick; just shy of two years later, Orakpo in unofficially slated to go to his second consecutive Pro Bowl wearing a burgundy and gold helmet. Nice work, Mel!

Last year didn’t go quite so well for Kiper’s Redskins projections. His first effort, almost exactly a year ago, had QB Sam Bradford going to Washington. And who knows, perhaps Kiper would’ve been correct on that as well — but Bradford’s stock rose and he wasn’t on the board for Washington to even consider.

On the other hand, that wouldn’t have mattered to Kiper’s projections, because a month later in his version 2.0 mock, he had switched the Redskins pick to QB Jimmy Clausen — with Bradford still on the board. “Clausen will gain momentum after the combine,” Kiper confidently wrote. “Once he’s fully recovered from his toe surgery, he’ll show teams he can make the throws, but there’s more to it. His intelligence, competitiveness and toughness will impress personnel people, and his stock will rise.”

This, of course, was spectacularly, catastrophically wrong in almost every way imaginable, but it’s worth bringing up now because it’s that time of the year again: Mel Kiper has emerged from his eight-month hibernation period blinking in the winter sun, and — as is the way of his people — immediately released a mock draft. And like last year, it features the Redskins taking a big-name quarterback with their first-round pick — specifically Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton, from the National Champion Auburn Tigers.

The actual mock draft is for ESPN Insiders only, but ESPN’s NFC East blogger Matt Mosley was kind enough to post Kiper’s commentary on Newton for us ESPN Outskirters: “A gifted athlete, Newton has good arm strength and size, has developing accuracy and continues to show that the more you ask him as a passer, the more he’ll develop. This spot might be a bit high based on his current grade in the eyes of scouts, but Newton’s skill-set is such that personnel people are going to become more enamored, if they already aren’t. Newton has character questions that need to be answered, but the Redskins have a long-term need at this position and the prospect of developing Newton is a tantalizing one.”

And, as is also traditional at this time of the year, the sportsy internet has very nearly trampled over itself in their rush to respond to Kiper’s vaguely-reasoned prediction. (I mean, really: “people are going to become more enamored”? Because it worked so well when he suggested that “Clausen will gain momentum after the combine”?)

Anyhow, here’s what people are saying about the Cam Newton possibility.

Kevin Ewoldt, Hogs Haven: “Ugh. That has to be a mistake.”

Ken Meringolo, Hogs Haven, writing at SBNation DC: “I find this to be extraordinarily troubling. Do we need a new franchise signal-caller? Oh yeah. Do we need a new hope under center to give us fans something to look forward to for the next decade? Without a doubt. But we have a laundry list of needs. We have more holes to fill than we have draft picks to fill them. Sound familiar?”

Jordan Ruby, SBNation DC: “If this was a Madden franchise that I was running, I would definitely take Newton. But the stakes are considerably higher here. There are other positions of need that the Redskins can fill over quarterback if they feel a better prospect is still on the board. Drafting by position is what keeps teams near the top of the draft, it’s always safest to just take the best talent available. If that happens to be a quarterback, than so be it. But I just hope the Redskins aren’t married to the idea of getting their quarterback of the future, when they should be looking to just improve the team the best way they can.”

Dave Ross and Wisdom Martin, on FOX-5′s Off The Wall:

http://www.myfoxdc.com/video/videoplayer.swf?dppversion=6994

(For those of you who don’t want to watch the slightly bombastic video, here are the crucial quotes.

Wisdom: “Should they? No. They have too many holes. Don’t have any receivers. Don’t have any offensive lineman — they have one offensive lineman. They don’t have enough. They’ve got too many holes they need to fill. They don’t need a young quarterback. Plus he can’t play right away — he probably won’t play this year. Stay away from Cam Newton.

Ross: “Should they? I agree with you. No, they should not. I agree, they have much bigger issues, much bigger fish to fry, namely that offensive line. If there’s a center at number 10, go get that center. Sorry, Casey Rabach. But WILL they? You never know with the Washington Redskins. It is a hype machine. They are the kings of the offseason. Cam Newton could be coming to DC. But we say don’t do it.”)

KC Clyburn, Bleacher Report: “Shanahan already had a chance to pick up a quarterback like Newton in 2006. He chose Jay Cutler instead of Vince Young. Cutler is about to play in the NFC Championship Game. Vince Young is on the cusp of getting released. With nagging character issues, zero experience in pro style offenses, and a lot of work to do, Shanahan will pass on Newton. Newton could have a ton of upside, but he could also be a tremendous bust. And with an owner like Dan Snyder, who appears to have changed his ways a little but still desperately wants to win, Shanahan can not afford to take a chance on a potential bust.”

Matt Kremnitzer, Krem’s Sports: “In the end, if the Redskins do decide that Newton is the guy, that’s fine. But he’s not going to be the team’s savior with so many other gaping holes on the roster, and it would be wrong of them to believe that. Shanahan and Allen have a ton of work to do, and hopefully they are not solely focused on finding a quarterback. This team needs much more help than that.”

Sure, it’s just a small sampling of the response, but it’s also uniformly negative. And, what the heck, I’ll add my own voice to the chorus and say that I’d rather see either offensive OR defensive line addressed with the first-round pick than risk taking anything less than the surest of sure things at QB.

The good news for all of those people (me included) is that Kiper’s supremely confident prediction of a big-name quarterback last year turned out to be completely and inarguably wrong — twice.

Well, the NFL draft rumor mill continues to churn, and the latest churning has once again churned Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen to the Redskins’ pick at number 4. Last week, Mel Kiper was reporting this, and people were not pleased. Now, National Football Post’s Michael Lombardi has weighed in on NFL Network with the same conclusion.

Here is what Lombardi had to say (as transcribed by Dan Steinberg of the DC Sports Bog):

“Shock pick here. My man Mike Shanahan, he sat there in Dove Valley all those years with quarterbacks, he moved over to the Tech Center [neighborhood] where he had an office. Jimmy Clausen, scouted him a lot, went through all the quarterbacks. He knows he needs a quarterback. He is the pro style. Fits him perfectly.”

Well, if two guys are saying it, it’s a done deal, right? And one of them is Michael Lombardi, who — according to ESPN NFC East blogger Matt Mosley in his post entitled ‘Clausen to Skins Gaining Steam’ — “tends to have a good feel for these things”. Might as well get your Clausen jersey printed up now, I guess.

Except … well, Lombardi’s a smart guy. He’s been nice enough to chat with me in the past, so he’s got that going for him. But just how good a feel does he really have for these things? I decided to dig up his 2009 mock draft to see.
And, actually, that wasn’t easy. Lombardi’s mock drafts were posted on the then-still-new National Football Post, and reposted on CBSSports.com. The NFP ones seem to be gone outright, at least with the basic searches I’ve been doing. You can find the Google archive of the first half of the CBS Sports first round, but I wasn’t able to turn up the second half on either official site.

Fortunately, the folks on a Buffalo Bills message board were kind enough to reprint his entire mock draft, and the Google cache of that post still exists. That’s the version of Lombardi’s 2009 mock draft that I’m using; it’s version 2, which came out on April 17, just a week before the actual draft took place.

Here are his top 15 picks (I picked 15 because it’s a nice round multiple of 5 that includes the Redskins picking at 13):

1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia – The Lions must find a way to fix the most important position on the field.

2. St. Louis Rams: Eugene Monroe, LT, Virginia – To me, the Rams’ line is their most pressing need. This pick is available for any team who wants a lineman.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest – It wouldn’t surprise me if the Chiefs tried to trade down and gain some other picks. I know they like Tyson Jackson, but not here.

4. Seattle Seahawks: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC – Too much value to pass for Seattle. The Seahawks can groom him for the future and make sure the franchise never has another downturn.

5. Cleveland Browns: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech – If they trade Braylon Edwards and Brady Quinn, the Browns may end up with three first-round picks in this draft. I think Sanchez is also an option here.

6. Cincinnati Bengals: Jason Smith, LT, Baylor – They might be tempted to take Andre Smith here, but since Jason Smith makes it to them, the Bengals go with the more complete Smith.

7. Oakland Raiders: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland – Heyward-Bey’s speed is too tempting for the Raiders to pass up.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama – The Jags have to find a way to improve their offensive line and Smith is a talented player.

9. Green Bay Packers: Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi – The Packers might be tempted to draft Tyson Jackson, whom I hear they love. Oher is a hot commodity in the draft right now. Hard to pass on a legitimate left tackle, although I know they need defense.

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (trade with San Francisco): Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State – The Bucs know they have to be aggressive to get their quarterback of the future. The 49ers move when Oher is taken.

11. Buffalo Bills: Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas – The Bills have to generate a rush, and last year Aaron Schobel was not well.

12. Denver Broncos: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College – The Broncos have to rebuild their defense and specifically their defensive line. Getting Raji is a huge bonus.

13. Washington Redskins: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri – The ‘Skins must find a playmaker to go with Moss and help their quarterback make plays. I know they drafted wideouts last year, but they still need playmaker.

14. New Orleans Saints: Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio State – Might be tempted to go with Malcolm Jenkins, but the Saints must find a way to convert short-yardage plays and need a big back to handle the chore.

15. Houston Texans: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee – Ayers can play all over the front and is capable of playing in any scheme. He’ll help with inside pressure.

And here, for those of you who don’t recall, is how the first round actually broke down:

1) Lions, Matthew Stafford, QB
2) Rams, Jason Smith, OT
3) Chiefs, Tyson Jackson, DE
4) Seahawks, Aaron Curry, OLB
5) Jets, Mark Sanchez, QB
6) Bengals, Andre Smith, OT
7) Raiders, Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR
8) Jaguars, Eugene Monroe, OT
9) Packers, B.J. Raji, DT
10) 49ers, Michael Crabtree, WR
11) Bills, Aaron Maybin, DE
12) Broncos, Knowshon Moreno, RB
13) Redskins, Brian Orakpo, DE
14) Saints, Malcolm Jenkins, CB
15) Texans, Brian Cushing, OLB

So what this means is that Lombardi got two picks in the top 15 correct. He correctly predicted what position the players taken by five more teams would play, made up a trade that didn’t happen, missed a trade that did, and outright whiffed on the remaining six spots.

That’s right around the success level that I achieved with my own mock draft, and no one on Earth is ever going to say that I have a good feel for these things.

So does all of this mean that the team absolutely won’t select Clausen? Of course not. Anything is possible, and the fact that Lombardi has made mistakes in the past doesn’t mean he’ll miss on the Skins. Don’t forget: he was the ONLY one to nail the Heyward-Bey pick in Oakland.

But for those — apparently plentiful — people who don’t like that projected pick, this at least gives you something to hang your hats on as we all wait to see what actually happens on April 22nd.

When last we checked in with ESPN’s Mel Kiper, the well-coiffed draft guru was predicting that the Redskins would select Sam Bradford, quarterback out of Oklahoma, with the fourth overall pick in the upcoming draft. With version 2.0 of his draft now on the record, Kiper’s in the same QB-tastic church, just at a slightly different pew:

Kiper now predicts the Redskins will select Jimmy Clausen, QB out of Notre Dame.

John Keim of the Washington Examiner has Kiper’s reasoning FOR Clausen:

“Jimmy is as competitive as it gets,” Kiper said. “His accuracy is outstanding; his arm strength is good. … To me, there are no questions about his competitiveness and leadership.”

And his argument AGAINST Bradford:

“The issues I have with Sam is that we haven’t seen him in an NFL setting, where there’s pressure and you have to throw into small windows,” Kiper said. “Bradford and Clausen are right there; you just have to decide which one you want.”

It certainly seems to me that we haven’t actually seen Clausen in an NFL setting either, but maybe I’m taking Kiper’s points too literally. Wes Bunting of the National Football Post, meanwhile, doesn’t even have Clausen in his Top 30 draftable players, and ESPN’s OTHER well-coiffed draft guru, Todd McShay, doesn’t have Clausen going in the first round of his latest mock. (McShay, for the record, has the Redskins selecting offensive tackle Anthony Davis out of Rutgers.)

So saying opinions are divided on this guy would be an understatement. And Clausen won’t be throwing at the Scouting Combine next week, so don’t expect more clarity at that point.

I’m not going to claim to have exhaustively scouted Clausen, but — even if I were looking for a quarterback — I feel like the fourth overall pick should be used on as close to a sure thing as you can find. A guy who some people don’t even project as a first-rounder doesn’t seem to fit that bill.

A look at some of what’s being suggested out there for the Redskins as the offseason officially kicks into gear:

DC Pro Sports Report continues to aggregate mock drafts to find the consensus picks for each spot, and right now the leading pick for the Redskins at four is quarterback Sam Bradford. This, based on my previous informal research on the subject, would not be an exceedingly popular choice, but DCPSR does offer this nugget for the “must draft O-line” contingent:

Trend: Keep an eye on Oklahoma State OT Russell Okung here. More mocks are beginning to project the big tackle at No. 4.

Meanwhile, what would drafting Bradford actually mean? Over at Rotoworld.com, Evan Silva has a pretty comprehensive look at the available QBs in this year’s draft. Here’s what he’s got to say about Bradford:

Positives: There wasn’t a more dominant QB in the nation over the course of Bradford’s freshman and sophomore seasons. During that span, the Academic All American completed 68.6% of his attempts for 86 touchdowns and just 16 interceptions. Bradford left school as the NCAA’s all-time leader in pass efficiency, demonstrating incredible accuracy and aggressiveness throwing downfield. Though Oklahoma’s offense became more spread oriented late in Bradford’s career, it still incorporated plenty of pro-style concepts and required the 2008 Heisman winner to make deep throws while taking his fair share of snaps from center and utilizing play action. When 100%, Bradford demonstrated above-average arm strength. Often executing precise throws on the move, the once-decorated high school basketball player is highly athletic.

Negatives: Bradford’s 2009 season ended after three games when he aggravated an AC joint shoulder sprain originally suffered in the Sooners’ opener. Dr. James Andrews performed a reconstruction on October 28, afterwards saying the surgery went “just as we expected.” Despite his 6’4/223-pound listing at Oklahoma, Bradford often looked to be playing in the 200-pound range and could afford to bulk up. Bradford’s passing mechanics were flawless for the Sooners’ mostly-spread attack, but will change in a pro-style system. He was surrounded by countless high draft picks, including 2008 second-rounder Malcolm Kelly, 2009 third-rounder Juaquin Iglesias, likely 2010 first-round tight end Jermaine Gresham, and an annually star-studded Sooners offensive line.

Silva’s NFL comparison for Bradford is Matt Schaub. That may not sound all that exciting, but Schaub is the guy that Kyle Shanahan coached up into the NFL’s leading passer last year; if the team goes QB, a Schaub clone wouldn’t be a bad choice.

(On the other hand, Silva lists Maryland’s Chris Turner as someone with an “outside shot to be drafted.” I’ve watched a lot of Maryland football, and … well, either Silva is seeing something that I really wasn’t, or he and I don’t see eye-to-eye on QB evaluations, or when he says “outside shot,” he’s speaking in interplanetary terms.)

But wait — the Redskins still have a quarterback on the roster! What about Jason Campbell? According to NFL Fanhouse’s free agency primer, Campbell (a restricted free agent, assuming no new collective bargaining agreement gets done) is the top option in the pool of free agent quarterbacks. This puts him ahead of such notables as Kyle Orton, Matt Moore, Tarvaris Jackson, and Chad Pennington. So … faint praise, yes, but praise nonetheless.

And QB is only second on the list of Redskins needs according to Scouts Inc. at ESPN.com. (It’s in ESPN Insider, I’m afraid.) Scouts joins the pro-offensive-line crew, noting that neither Stephon Heyer nor Levi Jones seems like the answer at left tackle.

You might notice that number three from the Scouts folks is RB, with other needs including OG, C, CB, and S. Which means, reassuringly, that they think the Redskins’ top needs for this offseason include something like six of the eleven positions on offense. And half a defensive backfield. Awesome.

Meanwhile, writing at the Sacramento Bee, Matt Barrows makes a pretty compelling case for one possibility at the tackle position: Tony Pashos, currently a 49er and formerly of the Ravens and Jaguars. (That’s him in an AP photo at the top of this post.) Barrows writes:

The 49ers will sit down with Pashos’ agent at the scouting combine. Pashos has said in the past that he wants to start. The 49ers, meanwhile, are expected to draft an offensive tackle this year. In addition, Pashos’ long-time offensive line coach, Chris Foerster, is now in Washington and this is expected to be a weak market for all players, including offensive tackles. The Redskins need offensive linemen, they have deeper pockets than the 49ers and they have Pashos’ offensive line coach. All signs point to him playing in D.C.

Pashos is 29 and has seven NFL seasons already under his belt, so he’s not likely to be a longterm solution at the position. Still, in the three years prior to the 2009 season he started 47 out of a possible 48 games, so at the very least it’s an interesting suggestion.

And finally at the Examiner, Rick Snider is wondering if the Redskins will be particularly involved in the offseason at all, what with the uncapped year and the new management.

Those of you who have seen me on ComcastSportsNet’s Redskins Nation have probably realized that few things annoy me more than the endless coverage Brett Favre receives. I’m completely sick of it, and if I never heard the name Brett Favre again, it would STILL be too much and I would still loathe him forever.

Those of you who have been following this blog can probably guess that on my 7,342 item list of Things I’m Sick Of This Offseason, “media-driven Redskins quarterbacking controversy” ranks just behind Brett Favre.

So when WJFK’s morning show The Junkies blogged this morning that ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio had suggested that Favre might wind up in Washington, it was pretty much the Reese’s Peanut Butter Cup of hatred for me, and I reacted accordingly.

(Chris Mottram over at Mr. Irrelevant tracks the rumor in MUCH greater — and more amusing — detail.)

Then I heard the segment of the Paul Allen show on KFAN radio in Minneapolis where Florio was a guest, which is what started this whole thing. The short takeaway from it? Nothing to worry about. Never mind.

Here, though, to prevent anyone else from having the same reaction I did, is my transcript of what Florio ACTUALLY said on KFAN:

Mike Florio, ProFootballTalk.com: “I do not rule out Daniel M Snyder waking up one morning between now and the end of July and realizing, ‘You know what, we run the West Coast offense, I’ve been trying to get a quarterback other than Jason Campbell, *I* want Brett Favre for a season.’

“Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean that Brett Favre detours at this point, ’cause he’s pretty much locked himself into the Vikings based on what he said to Joe Buck. But — we can’t rule out the possibility of somebody getting involved. Because let’s say there’s another team that would pay him fifteen million for one year, and the Vikings are looking for something far less that. Bus Cook’s in a position — Favre’s agent — to really influence Brett Favre and potentially get him to look in another direction.

“I’m not saying any of that’s gonna happen, Paul. My point is that with Brett Favre, you have to account for the weird screwball unexpected thing, because that’s what we’ve ultimately gotten from this guy for the past, what, three, four years.”

Paul Allen, show host: “But the whole thing is settled now. I mean, it’s … there’s a zero percent chance he even thinks for a second about playing for the Washington Redskins. This is not a money thing. This is a ‘I get a chance to beat Green Bay twice’ thing, and I’m on a division champion that might have a better chance to go to the Super Bowl than maybe the Washington Redskins do. So I don’t think you need to think about that at all.”

Now, I don’t agree with that last bit — Adrian Peterson is great and all, but do the Vikings really have a better chance at the Super Bowl than the Redskins? Really? — but I think Allen nails it here otherwise. Zero percent chance.

Here, for example, is the one for the Redskins as of Wednesday afternoon:

Let’s detour for a moment and review the Arizona Cardinals’ 2008 NFL season, shall we? Coming off an 8-8 year, the Cardinals finished only 9-7 while playing in a weak division. Their recent first-round quarterback was benched in preseason in favor of an aging also-ran whose best years were thought to be behind him. Their defense finished the regular season ranked 28th in the league in points allowed. They’re a historically lousy franchise with criminally low expectations almost every year. And yet they were just a few breaks away from winning the Super Bowl.

I’m not going to rehash every surprise team story from the last decade (1999 Rams! 2000 Ravens! 2001Patriots!) or even every surprise from last season (Tyler Thigpen! Matt Cassel! Kerry Collins!), but really. At this point in the season, how is “Win Super Bowl” not the best-case scenario for every single franchise in the NFL? And, for that matter, when is “Miss playoffs” EVER the best a team can hope for.

And yet, despite this being a ridiculously dumb question, 39% of respondents don’t even aspire to more than a “Deep playoff run” for the Skins. Bizarre.

There is some good news in these polls, though.

Leaving aside the Jason Campbell question — seriously, just for a day, trying to leave it aside — 80% of respondents think the Redskins have improved this offseason, and almost 90% think Brian Orakpo is going to be a legitimate sack threat.

Does it matter? Of course not. It’s idle offseason speculation about players who won’t be involved in meaningful games for more than four months, but it’s a step up from the strange pessimism of the responses to the first poll question.

(Oh, and those Arizona Cardinals? The ones who nearly shocked the world in the Super Bowl last year? Only 21% think their best-case scenario for this year is to win it all. Maybe I’m just not understanding the question.)

Actually, in Charles Robinson’s initial roundup of the likely Cutler destinations last night on Yahoo Sports, he doesn’t list the Redskins in his top seven (although he does acknowledge that ProFootballTalk is rumoring a Cutler-to-D.C. move). Four hours later, though, Robinson has the Redskins solidly on his expanded list of Cutler’s possible suitors.

This would be Dan Snyder all the way, and he’s sending some signals that would make Washington obvious contenders. First, he has declined to extend current starter Jason Campbell, who is entering the last year of his deal, showing the team still isn’t sold that he’s a long-term answer. Second, Snyder was on hand when the Redskins worked out USC’s Mark Sanchez, a clear indicator that Washington has more than a faint interest in exploring other options. In Washington’s favor, it has a solid No. 1 pick to offer, and Campbell could be part of a deal as well. Working against the Redskins are other teams with better draft picks to offer, and Campbell’s skills don’t fit in the system the Broncos will run under McDaniels.

USA Today’s The Huddle blog agrees, listing the Redskins as one of five teams “Hot On Cutler’s Trail”:

Washington Redskins: An intriguing option in that the Redskins can offer the best starting-ready QB in a two-team deal. Current Washington starter Jason Campbell was probably the MVP of the first half last season, and would offer the Broncos a stable, if not top-tier, signal caller. Cutler would appease Redskins owner Dan Snyder’s indulgence in star players. And the Redskins can offer the 13th pick in this year’s draft.

And the Denver Post lists the Redskins “among the leading candidates” for the dissatisfied QB.

The Redskins have a proven young quarterback in Jason Campbell and would meet the Broncos’ preference of dealing Cutler outside their American Football Conference. The Redskins also have the No. 13 selection in this year’s draft on April 25, one spot behind the Broncos.

So far, it’s all just somewhat arbitrary speculation, and no one here has said anything yet to make me believe that anything about the team’s position has actually changed since that last go around two weeks ago. That said, it’s an awful lot of speculation — enough to make me wonder whether such a trade would even make sense.

Here are their career statlines:

Jason Campbell: over 36 career games, has completed 59.7% of his passes for 7,242 yards (6.5 yard average), with 35 touchdowns over 23 interceptions for a career QB rating of 80.4. Last year — his first full season as a starter — it was 3,245 yards, 13 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and a rating of 84.3

Jay Cutler: over 37 career games, has completed 62.5% of his passes for 9,024 yards (7.4 yard average), with 54 touchdowns over 37 interceptions for a career QB rating of 87.1. Last year, Cutler passed for 4,526 yards, 25 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, a rating of 86.0, and an AFC Pro Bowl berth.

So it’s down to what quarterbacking style you prefer. Campbell’s more careful style results in fewer flashy plays, fewer touchdowns, and — last year, at least — markedly fewer interceptions. But that’s not what people are going to be focusing on when and if a trade is being worked out; the statistics they’ll focus on are the 4,526 yards and the 25 touchdowns, and those seem to dictate that a straight up trade is out of the question.

So the question you have to ask isn’t just “Would you give up Campbell for Cutler,” but rather something more along the lines of “Would you give up Campbell, the thirteenth pick in the draft, and another pick or player for Cutler?” And I suspect that — if this deal is actually being considered — that’s at least what it’s going to come down to.

So would you do it? Rich Tandler says yes, fairly emphatically:

Jay Cutler’s Broncos have a record of 13-1 when they give up fewer than 21 points.

Do the math.

The Redskins need to get Jay Cutler.

Not at any price. Their 2009 and 2010 first-round picks are too much. But if Denver wants the 2010 #1, Jason Campbell, and maybe second-day selection this year?

Boom, just do it.

How about if Denver asks for this year’s first and Campbell? I try to get back a second or third this year or next but if that’s what it takes I do it.

I think that Jason Campbell is going to have a monster year next year, personally — it’s a contract year, it’s his second year in the system, and he had a better-than-solid start last year that I think he’ll build on — plus he’s an enormously likeable guy, where Cutler, at least based on appearances, is a bit on the sulky side (to say the least). But Cutler has the potential to be the sort of every-year statistical-beast, franchise quarterback that the Redskins haven’t had (Brad Johnson’s 1999 campaign aside) since Joe Theismann or Sonny Jurgensen, depending on how you rank those guys.

It’s a tough call, and I’m really not at all sure that the potential improvement is worth the cost. Assuming, of course, that’s not all just complete speculation.

What are your thoughts?

It’s also useful to remember that the Redskins fans aren’t the only team in the league where such rumors get going when a big-ticket guy is available. Over at SI.com, Don Banks takes a look at the Cutler coverage around the league:

• The Dallas Morning News shooting down a notion that has taken on a life of its own on Cowboys blogs: Trading Tony Romo for Cutler straight up. No word on whether Jessica Simpson goes too.

• Various outlets pooh-poohing the idea that a Cutler for Donovan McNabb trade makes sense in Philadelphia. It has been correctly noted that the thin-skinned Cutler might just get his feelings roughed up a bit in a town of Philly’s ilk.

• Redskins personnel executive Vinny Cerrato re-affirming that Jason Campbell is the team’s starting quarterback and that Washington has no interest in trading for Cutler.

• The Bears starter Kyle Orton saying he’s unfazed by rumors that Chicago might be interested in trading for Cutler.

• Lions general manager Martin Mayhew refusing to address the issue of whether Detroit will attempt to trade for you-know-who for the second time this offseason.

• Former NFL quarterback and ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer responding to questions from the Minneapolis Star Tribune about whether Cutler would represent an upgrade at the position for the Vikings. His take? Not really.

And that’s less than half of what he comes up with. (Although, really, Trent Dilfer? You really don’t think that a 4,000-yard Pro Bowl quarterback is an upgrade from the Tavaris Jackson/ Sage Rosenfels combo meal? And I loved Sage Rosenfels when he was here, if for no other reason than to listen to my friends chanting “Let Sage out of the cage!” when our other quarterbacks were struggling, but … really?)

So it’s not just here, and it’s not just us.

Those wacky cats over at Hogs Haven created an amusing flowchart poking fun at the Redskins’ perceived strategy of pursuing big name free agents, but we fans tend to be guilty of that kind of thinking as well. Which is how we’ve wound up with an NFL offseason culture where ProFootballTalk can create something like the Anti-T.O. List (of teams who had publicly denied any interest in Owens), and it serves as a valuable resource.

And, even after the time it’s taken me to write all of that, I’m still feeling certain that Jay Cutler will not be a Washington Redskin this year.

Chris Cooley

Both of them were upbeat, as you’d expect. (I really can’t imagine a pro player getting up on the first day of offseason conditioning and saying, “Yeah, we’re just an umitigated disaster. We’re doomed.”) Cooley has set the totally realistic goal of 110 catches for the year (which would break Tony Gonzalez’s NFL record for catches in a season by a tight end), and Horton is prepared to compete for LaRon Landry’s roster spot. So you can say this, at least: everyone’s spirits seem to be starting off high.

Here are Horton’s comments. Cooley is after the jump.

On the competition at safety:

Horton: “I’m competing with all of those guys, Kareem (Moore), Reed (Doughty). I even compete with LaRon (Landry) and I don’t even play his position, but you just never know how things are going to go. I just look at it as show up every day and put forth your best effort.”

On what he had to do today:

Horton: “Today was fairly easy. You come in, they test your measurements on stretching. Then you do the treadmill run.”

On what he has done this off season:

Horton: “I spent a lot of time on the west coast, around UCLA. I can’t get enough of that place. I did spend a couple weeks back in New Orleans. I just hung out with my family. I’m not really a guy into big trips and doing all that stuff, at least not yet.”

On what he personally needs to improve on to become better:

Horton: “I still think there are some things that I need to get better at in the film room. I need to look at myself from last year and do a self evaluation and figure out where I went wrong in certain games. How could I have done certain things better? I just want to get my physical strength up and just stay healthy.”

And here’s Cooley.

On how it feels to be back:

Cooley: “It felt good to be in and see all the guys today. I live here, so I’ve been here since I got back from the Pro Bowl. It is good to be around, kinda hang out with the guys, get back in touch, see some of the coaches. It was a good day.”

On if there is a different vibe this year than last year:

Cooley: “We have the same strength staff and the same weightlifting staff so we kind of knew what to expect, at least coming into March last year. We are coming in for about an hour and a half and we are going to lift weights and we are going to run a little bit for the next six weeks. It’s pretty common.”

On if he is confident that the offense has what they need to succeed:

Cooley: “I think there’s a lot of confidence as far as the offense goes. I think it’s very important that we have an excellent off season, that we really work together. I think everything should be fine — if I catch about 110 balls we will be in great shape, so I will be bargaining for that with Zorn, but we are doing well.”

On the offense progressing in its second season with Coach Zorn:

Cooley: “I think that’s everyone’s hope. That is the general understanding, and when a football team progresses, that’s usually what happens. It is tough to adapt to a new coach, a new scheme. We did have some young receivers. I think everyone is looking for Devin (Thomas) and Malcolm (Kelly) to come on and have big years. It definitely starts right now. We need them to have a great offseason. We need those guys to play well for our offense to be successful. I think they are up to the challenge.”

The NFL Network pictures are even more damning than the early reports; The Big Lead has them if you haven’t seen them yet.

Nevertheless, Banks remains confident that this is the direction in which the Redskins are moving. And boy does he make it sound like an appealing selection!

The other folks that have been rumored to be of interest to the team are all (mostly long) off the board by thirteen in this projection:

• DT B.J. Raji at 4 (and probably not a need anymore with the Albert Haynesworth signing)
• DE Brian Orakpo at 6
• DE Aaron Maybin at 11
• LB Rey Maualuga at 12

The other offensive tackles that Banks believes the Redskins will pass up for Smith include Michael Oher and Eben Britton.

I’m not sure what would have to happen to Andre Smith between now and the draft to improve the general impression of him, but it’s tough for me to see him as a first-rounder right now.