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Projecting Griffin III’s Rookie Season

Posted by Andrew Walker on June 20, 2012 – 2:52 pm


He’s yet to play a snap in an NFL game, but it seems football experts everywhere just can’t help but attempt to try to figure out how Redskins’ quarterback Robert Griffin III will fare in his upcoming rookie season.

And at least one projection already sees Griffin III breaking some team records.

ESPN.com on Tuesday afternoon released a Fantasy Rountable discussion about Griffin III, which included a panel of fantasy football and NFL experts gabbing about how they thought the No. 2 overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft and 2011 Heisman Trophy winner would do in 2012.

Much of the discussion was directed towards comparing Griffin III’s upcoming rookie year to the rookie year of Carolina Panthers’ quarterback Cam Newton, who last season threw for 4,051 yards and 21 touchdowns through the air while adding 706 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground en route to being named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.

ESPN Insider NFL Analyst KC Joyner believes Griffin III has a shot at producing similar numbers this season.

“He can raise the play of everyone around him,” Joyner said. “So you could give him a great receiver and he could be productive, but you could give him solid receivers. And I think the Redskins have upgraded their receiving core dramatically. I think he could run as much as you want him to — so he could do things of that nature. I think he could get 500 yards rushing. I think he’s got about a 20 percent chance, maybe 30 percent chance to break some of Newton’s passing records last year.”

ESPN’s 2012 statistical projections for Griffin III, meanwhile, indicate the rookie won’t be quite as productive as Newton was in Carolina last season.

Here’s how ESPN thinks Griffin III will fare in 2012:

Passing yards: 3,132
Touchdowns: 18
Interceptions: 18
Rushing yards: 436
Rushing touchdowns: 6

In terms of all-time Redskins’ quarterback single-season performances, a rookie season like that for Griffin III would rank him 17th best in passing yards, tied for 23rd best in passing touchdowns and he would be No. 1 all-time in single-season rushing yards and touchdowns.

Top single-season passing yards performances by Redskins quarterbacks (via pro-football-reference.com):

1. Jay Schroeder (1986): 4,109 yards
2. Brad Johnson (1999): 4,005 yards
3. Mark Rypien (1989): 3,768 yards
4. Sonny Jurgensen (1967): 3,747 yards
5. Joe Theismann (1983): 3,714 yards

Top single-season touchdown performances by Redskins quarterbacks:

1. Sonny Jurgensen (1967): 31 touchdowns
2. Joe Theismann (1983): 29 touchdowns
3. Mark Rypien (1991): 28 touchdowns
3. Sonny Jurgensen (1966): 28 touchdowns
5. Sammy Baugh (1947): 25 touchdowns

Top single-season rushing performances by Redskins quarterbacks:

1. Joe Theismann (1984): 62 attempts, 314 yards, 1 touchdown
2. Jason Campbell (2008): 47 attempts, 258 yards, 1 touchdown
3. Ralph Guglielmi (1960): 79 attempts, 247 yards, 0 touchdowns
4. Jason Campbell (2009): 46 attempts, 236 yards, 1 touchdown
5. Joe Theismann (1983): 37 attempts, 234 yards, 1 touchdown

I’d imagine even these same experts couldn’t have predicted Cam Newton would’ve had the season he had last year for the Panthers, so, although the comparisons will be hard to avoid, I’d just hope Griffin III’s presence eventually has more influence in the win column — and then the stats will take care of themselves.

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Posted in Uncategorized | 11 Comments »

11 Responses to “Projecting Griffin III’s Rookie Season”

  1. By neelley on Jun 20, 2012 | Reply

    RGIII will not throw 18 picks this season. He threw less in his time at Baylor. He has great decision making skills, and wont make to many mistakes

  2. By Scuba Stevie on Jun 20, 2012 | Reply

    The interesting point from this article is that Jay S has the single season passing mark and it happened the year before the Super Bowl year with the posse…man those guys were good!

  3. By Antoine cole on Jun 20, 2012 | Reply


  4. By MobileM on Jun 20, 2012 | Reply

    I want to know if this panel of fantasy football and NFL experts had similar discussions last year? What sort of prediction did they came up with for Cam Newton?

  5. By Tim on Jun 20, 2012 | Reply

    I believe the 3100 yds passing is a little low and the 18 ints is a little high. He’s smart with the football. You won’t see 4 ints games from Griffin. As for the passing yards, remember this is Kyles offense. He’s going to throw the ball. If McNabb/Grossman do 4200yds and Grossman/Beck do 4000 yds, imagine what Griffin can do if he plays all 16 games. Probably won’t do 4000 but it’s not impossible to imagine.

  6. By Black_1 on Jun 21, 2012 | Reply

    I’m with just about everyone else. 18 INT’s does seem to be a bit high. I understand the whole “Rookie” bit and getting adjusted with the speed of NFL defenses. Practicing against our defense everyday should help help see that. A defense which is better than many outside of DC believe. I project errant throws here and there resulting in INT’s as well as the tipped and batted balls that will remarkablly fall in defenders hands but 18? I say 12-14 seems about right. I kinda agree as well with the yardage being slightly low. If a combo of McNugget and Sexy Rexy can combine for over 4000 or a combo of Capt. Checkdown and Sexy Rexy can come up with 4000 then it’s possible Griff can get just as close in his rookie year. I do think we will rely on the run a bit more and that will reflect in his overall numbers. I’d say 3500-3600 is about right.

  7. By the dam B&G on Jun 22, 2012 | Reply

    @ black1.. how did i immediately know that “captain check down” was a reference to john beck ?

  8. By welford a dabney on Jun 22, 2012 | Reply

    And I guess they also guessed correctly who would win the Superbowl last season! Ugh! 12

  9. By Hanna, fan for life on Jun 23, 2012 | Reply

    I m looking for RG3 to pass for 4, 150 yards, He also will have 20 rushing touchdown, He throw for 18 TDs. Dude is going to be a ELITE QB sooner than we know. this is Hanna man saying see you when i see you. PEACE OUT.

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