On Now
Coming Up
  • Sat., Oct. 21, 2017 1:30 PM - 2:00 PM EDT Live Jay Gruden At The Podium Tune in to hear Washington Redskins head coach Jay Gruden talks at the Inova Sports Performance Center at Redskins Park in Loudoun County, Va.
  • Mon., Oct. 23, 2017 7:30 PM - 7:50 PM EDT Live Redskins-Eagles Pregame Show Tune in to watch the pregame happenings from the Washington Redskins' Week 7 game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field.
  • Mon., Oct. 23, 2017 11:30 PM - 11:59 PM EDT Live Jay Gruden, Kirk Cousins At The Podium Tune in to watch head coach Jay Gruden and quarterback Kirk Cousins talk to the media at Lincoln Financial Field.
  • Tue., Oct. 24, 2017 12:00 AM - 1:30 AM EDT Live Jay Gruden, Kirk Cousins At The Podium Tune in to watch head coach Jay Gruden and quarterback Kirk Cousins talk to the media at Lincoln Financial Field.

A Madden Preview With High Expectations

Posted by Brian Tinsman on August 26, 2011 – 2:15 pm

AP Image

With three solid preseason games under their shoulder pads, this is no time to predict season-long expectations.  This is a long season with a young and developing roster, so it’s difficult to project how they will look in September, much less December.

That’s what video game simulations are for.

Joe Fortenbaugh over at the National Football Post recently tested the latest iteration of the almighty EA Sports Madden franchise.  Among his many observations, one was his casual reference to the five season simulations:

Can Madden predict this year’s Super Bowl winner?

Here’s what this year’s results look like:

SIMULATION 1: Pittsburgh 28, Philadelphia 15
SIMULATION 2: Washington 23, Pittsburgh 20
SIMULATION 3: New Orleans 27, Indianapolis 17
SIMULATION 4: Philadelphia 21, New England 9
SIMULATION 5: Philadelphia 22, Pittsburgh 21

In one of the five simulations for this season, the Redskins face off against the Steelers in a rematch of the first preseason game, and beat them to win the Super Bowl.

There is no question that this outcome would be optimistic at this point.  But to be mentioned in this group of perennial playoff contenders says something about the composition of this team.  Five simulations is hardly scientific, but it’s worth noting that this team has potential.

Further down in the post, Fortenbaugh deems that the Redskins have “NO SHOT,” at winning the Super Bowl, which is perfectly fine.  This is a team that has thus far played well, but will probably be best-served by flying under the radar.

At the end of the day, the only expectations that matter at the end of the day are those of the 11 men out on the field, wearing Burgundy and Gold.

Tags: , ,
Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments »

3 Responses to “A Madden Preview With High Expectations”

  1. By crany fan on Aug 26, 2011 | Reply

    Remember the year that Albert Haynesworth was rated 99 overall? I guess they didn’t factor in the “desire / heart” rating.

  2. By Sports Scatter on Aug 26, 2011 | Reply

    People overestimate the difference between talent on NFL teams, especially based on the far-from-scientific sample size of a 16 game season. This is why one or two ‘terrible’ teams end up in the playoffs every year and one or two ‘super bowl’ contenders end up with a top 10 draft pick every year.

    That’s not to say Indianapolis, New England, Pittsburgh, Giants, Eagles, and Packers lack a statistical advantage, but even the worst team in the league could run off a 15 out of 20 season every now and then. Look at sports where they play more games, like baseball, and you’ll see world series winners often lose 5, 6, 7 in a row…12 out of 16. Even the Cardinals football franchise made a super bowl once.

    It’s just the pre-season, but winning usually has more to do with streaks: being hot, when you get hot, injuries, and how an easy or difficult early-season schedule impacts your team’s psyche and health. Of course the Redskins could win the Super Bowl this year. Is it likely? Nope. Is it unlikely? Yep. Would it be some sort of statistical anomaly or miracle season? Nope.

  3. By david on Aug 27, 2011 | Reply

    @ sports scatter
    to give a slightly more optimistic statistical picture, we can make the unit of analysis this pre-season the number of possessions rather than the number of games. the redskins first-string offense has had about 10 possessions (estimating) against the other teams’ first string defenses, and the redskins first-string defense has had about 10 possessions against the other teams’ first string offenses — for a total of 20 data-points. 20 isn’t great, but a positive trend across 20 data points is a bit more likely to generalize than a positive trend among 3 data points/games. in short, based on 20 pre-season possessions involving first-team players, i think there is a reasonable statistical basis to conclude that the favorable ratio of good-to-bad possessions is likely to continue. granted, the confidence interval around the ‘productivity’ of a given possession is still wide, but i think narrow enough to conclude that the redskins are substantively different and better than last year.

Post a Comment

%d bloggers like this: