A Comparison That Makes Jake Locker Seem Both More And Less Appealing
Posted by Matt Terl on April 25, 2011 – 2:11 pm
If any of you are new to this blog, you probably think that I do nothing but complain about mock drafts in the most passive-aggressive way possible. And, recently, that’s kind of true. But I used to have a much broader spectrum of interests: I used to complain about Brett Favre also.
With Favre’s seemingly final retirement underway, I thought that maybe I could table the Favre complaints moving forward, but Michael Silver has put a stop to that.
Over at Yahoo! Sports, Silver has written an excellent profile of “Rogue Scout” Dave Razzano, who spent more than 20 years as a talent evaluator for three NFL teams, and who is opinionated enough that it’s cost him jobs. There are a lot of things in the piece that are worth a look:
- Razzano’s raging against the groupthink that precedes the NFL Draft is similar to what I’ve been trying to express this offseason, only articulated by someone who has years of firsthand experience in the process.
- One of Razzano’s unheralded prospects is USC nose tackle Jurrell Casey, whom I now desperately want the Redskins to draft.
- The level of crankiness Razzano exudes for things he doesn’t like is dwarfed only by the level of enthusiasm he exudes for the players he supports. By the time Silver’s profile ends, I want to draft every single guy Razzano champions … including quarterback Jake Locker, about whom I’ve been lukewarm at best.
But that carryover enthusiasm about Locker is dampened by one thing, and it’s the same thing that has brought my Favrehate (which seems like the sort of thing that the German language would have a single word for) back to the fore. Here’s the relevant quote from Razzano:
“[Brett] Favre went in the second round, right? If you look at their college stats, Favre and Locker are practically identical. Now look at this play: Tell me this guy doesn’t move like Favre, scramble like Favre, throw like Favre. Pretend he has the number four on his jersey. His release is a lot like Favre, too.”
There are so many things I don’t like about this paragraph, I think they deserve another bulleted list all their own:
- My least favorite thing about Brett Favre, even before his end-of-career PR implosion, was the endless reverence he was accorded by announcers, columnists, beat writers, etc. I’ve had people who’ve covered Favre tell me that he really is just that engaging in person, and that’s fine, but as a reader? Annoying. And it seems like a real short step from “Tell me he doesn’t look like Favre out there” to “He’s like a kid out there,” which means it’s just another short step to my head imploding.
- Throwing like Favre is great and all, except that the Brett Favre throws that endure in my memory all went to guys who were wearing different colored jerseys from him, often in crucial moments.
- Yes, Favre was drafted in the second round … by a team for whom he went 0-for-5 with two interceptions for a QB rating of negative-164.6. (Which I don’t think is actually possible, but which is, in fact, listed on this website.) Sure, he was traded for a first-round pick, but still: it’s not like he yielded great value to the team that drafted him.
But none of that matters, right? The personal demons that Favre struggled with early in his career won’t be replicated in Locker — by all accounts a leader and a heck of a guy — and it’s unfair to dismiss Locker just because a scout fawns over him in a Favre-esque manner. The key has to be those numbers, the “college stats” Razzano points to.
And those are just flat-out eerie.
|
Team
|
GP
|
Comp
|
Att
|
%
|
Yds
|
TD
|
INT
|
Y/A
|
RATING
|
|
Favre
|
44
|
613
|
1169
|
52.4
|
7695
|
52
|
34
|
6.6
|
116.6
|
|
Locker
|
40
|
619
|
1147
|
53.9
|
7639
|
53
|
35
|
6.7
|
119.1
|
The main hit on Locker is that he played four fewer games to achieve roughly the same stats. Leaving that aside, the statistical difference between the two is that Locker has 6 more completions in 22 fewer attempts for 56 fewer yards, 1 more touchdown and 1 more interception. I would call that a solid correlation right there.
And — all anti-Favre bloviating aside — if Locker wound up with career numbers that were even in the vicinity of Favre’s, you’d have to rate him as a successful draft pick no matter how high you selected him.
So there are pros to the Favre comparison and cons to the Favre comparison — and, of course, the very real possibility that the Favre comparison is just so much statistical coincidence — but, at the very least, it’s worth reading the entire article to get more context on the person MAKING the comparison.
For me, I’m somewhat shocked to admit, the whole thing makes me like the idea of Locker in a Redskins uniform slightly more. Just don’t tell me that he’s like a kid out there. Please.
(Mainly, though, I’m thankful that it’s just a few more days until all of this speculation turns into actual news.)
Tags: Brett Favre, favrehate, jake locker, links
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