The Redskins Blog

Mock Drafts: Someone Pretty Much HAS To Be Right [Updated]

It’s taken me awhile to figure out why I’m so burned out on NFL Mock Drafts this year. I knew it had something to do with the sheer volume of information out there, the way everyone who watches football has managed to contribute to a mock draft or two, but it finally crystallized for me today while I was looking at DC Pro Sports Report’s absolutely indispensable Mock Draft Database.

Generally, I use this resource to see who the popular picks are at the Redskins spot (wide receiver Julio Jones continues to lead; he’s the Redskins pick in 46% of mocks, according to DCPSR). Today, I realized that what’s been bothering me all season has nothing to do with who’s getting the MOST votes — instead, it’s about the simple NUMBER of guys that show up as potential Redskins selections. Talking about “sheer volume of information” is one thing, but it’s another thing to look at an actual list of thirty twenty-nine names.

No, really. THIRTY. Seriously, TWENTY-NINE. [UPDATED because Da'quan Bowers and Daquan Bowers were counted as two different people, which is probably not right.] Check it out:

• Adrian Clayborn
• AJ Green
• Aldon Smith
• Blaine Gabbert
• Cam Newton
• Cameron Jordan
• Colin Kaepernick
• Corey Liuget
• Da’Quan Bowers
• Derrick Sherrod
• Jake Locker
• Jeremy Beal
• Jimmy Smith
• JJ Watt
• Julio Jones
• Marcel Dareus
• Marcus Pouncey
• Mark Ingram
• Michael Floyd
• Muhammad Wilkerson
• Nate Solder
• Nick Fairley
• Phillip Taylor
• Prince Amukamara
• Robert Quinn
• Ryan Kerrigan
• Ryan Mallett
• Tyron Smith
• Von Miller

Yep. If any of the mock drafters in the database know what they’re talking about, the Redskins will select one of those thirty guys in the first round. (Most of them are at ten, but a few do incorporate trades and the like.) What that means, of course, is that you might as well just list “projected first-round prospects” and say, “Hey, the Redskins are gonna take one of these guys.”

[UPDATE 2: It's also been pointed out that some of these old mock drafts can barely be taken seriously anymore -- Michael Floyd, for example, was from a 10/28 mock draft that projected the Redskins picking 22nd overall.]

Sure, some of the mock drafters have more authority than others, but most of them lay claim to at least some level of expertise. And even the biggest, most respected draft pundits — the ones whose conference calls become the basis for mainstream media news stories — miss plenty of the time. Poor Jimmy Clausen is probably still wondering how Mel Kiper could’ve been THAT wrong about him last year.

Still, the odds are exceedingly good that someone will get to claim to hitting the Redskins pick correctly. How could they not? After all, just about every player who’s graded out as a first round talent has been projected to go to Washington by SOMEONE.