Speculating On The Numbers From Last Night's Game
Posted by Matt Terl on September 3, 2010 – 2:30 pm
The pregame list of Redskins not expected to participate in last night’s game at Arizona ran to 29 guys (pictured in AP photos throughout this post), and the general assumption was that those 29 guys had secured their roster spots and would be on the opening day roster. After the game, though, head coach Mike Shanahan shot that assumption down pretty directly.
“I didn’t want them to play today because they’ve had enough reps and [I] wanted to get a chance to look at some of those other players,” he said, according to the Washington Post. “But no, just because somebody didn’t dress, it’s not because they’re necessarily on the football team.”
Fair enough. Maybe the 29-man did-not-play list won’t precisely reflect the opening day roster, but I’m still willing to assume that it’s pretty darned close. And that 29-man list is actually a 31-man list, because Trent Williams and Jammal Brown weren’t listed on it but seem like absolute locks to make the opening day roster.
In fact, that 31-man list is actually a 34-man list, because the three specialists — kicker, punter, long snapper — will definitely be on the roster opening day. (Even if there’s a sudden and totally unexpected change in who one of those specialists is, it won’t change those numbers.)
That opening day roster will be 53 guys long, but only 45 of them will be active on any given Sunday. Which means that of the players you saw on the field last night, only eleven (aside from the specialists) are likely to in any way influence an actual regular season game.
This is significant in a couple of ways:
First, it makes scoring a field goal against the Cardinals’ first-team defense and holding the Cardinals’ first-team offense to a field goal seem like even more remarkable achievements.
And second, it gives us a slightly different way to guess at the makeup of the roster: instead of guessing for the 53 or breaking it down by position group, all we need to do is figure out which eleven guys who showed up in yesterday’s stat sheet are most likely to contribute on Sundays.
And it’s even easier than that, because I feel confident predicting that Albert Haynesworth and Lorenzo Alexander will be on the 45-man active roster, so that leaves just nine positions to figure out, if one wanted to wildly speculate as to the potential regular season roster.
The third quarterback won’t be one of those nine spots — he counts as one of the eight inactives — so we can disregard that. But a third running back probably will be, so take your pick of one of those guys. (I’m currently leaning toward Keiland Williams, because his pass-catching ability is the least redundant skill-set with the top two veteran RBs, but that opinion changes by the hour. I can definitely see the argument for Ryan Torain.) That leaves eight more guys.
At least one of them is going to be a wide receiver, because you’re gonna need more than three WRs dressed on gameday. So, again, take your pick. I’m arbitrarily giving Devin Thomas the edge despite his up-and-down preseason because — if nothing else — he’s done well returning kicks. Seven more guys to go.
A minimum of two more positions are easy to predict, as you’re going to need backup offensive linemen. If you carried, say, Stephon Heyer (who can play both tackle spots) and Will Montgomery or Kory Lichtensteiger (either of whom can play center or guard), you might be able to get away with just seven active offensive linemen. Pick your favorite of the two C/G, add Heyer, and we’re down to five spots remaining.
I believe that Chris Horton still makes the active roster, which brings us to four, and now I think you’re at the guys who are going to be contributing largely on special teams. Say a backup cornerback like Kevin Barnes, a backup linebacker like H.B. Blades (this is where Robert Henson might’ve fit in), a third tight end like Logan Paulsen, and there’s one more spot left.
The last guy puzzles me a little bit. If you want to get Brandon Banks on the team, he could go here. A backup nose tackle might be nice, or another running back or fullback, or an additional offensive lineman. I like the idea of a dedicated backup nose tackle — those big guys can wear down as the game progresses — so I’m going with Anthony Bryant.
This is all complete speculation on my part — and let me reiterate that in bold: this is complete speculation — and Shanahan’s assertion that any of the guys who sat could still be cut would obviously shake it up a bit. But I look at the 45 guys that’ve emerged as regular gameday contributors through this process and I feel like it’s a team of strong players, guys that I’d be comfortable with. Right or wrong, though, we’ll find out the 53-man tomorrow, and now we can all check my work on the 45-man a week from Sunday against Dallas.
Man, I cannot wait for a week from Sunday.
Tags: preseason 2010, wild speculation
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